Southern California Braces for Potentially 'Very Strong' El Niño in Late 2026
Southern California Braces for Potentially 'Very Strong' El Niño in Late 2026
US · Published Jun 12, 2026
A 'very strong' El Niño event is developing in the Pacific Ocean, with the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center estimating a 63% chance of it intensifying between November 2026 and January
El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, typically occurs every two to seven years and can last nine to twelve months. Historically, strong El Niño events have brought significant rainfall to Southern California, with past occurrences in 1982-83 and 1997-98 resulting in over 30 inches of rain in Los Angeles, more than double the annual average. However, experts caution that not all strong El Niño events guarantee heavy rainfall. The current oceanic conditions, including rising subsurface temperatures, suggest a high likelihood of impactful weather patterns later this year.

Why It's Important?

Southern California could experience above-average rainfall, potentially leading to flooding, mudslides, and coastal erosion. Past strong El Niño events have caused significant damage, including $100 million in coastal destruction in 1982-83 and widespread flooding in 1997-98. Marine ecosystems may also be affected, with warmer waters potentially increasing shark sightings, jellyfish populations, and marine heat waves. These conditions could harm sea life, including kelp forests and seabirds, and exacerbate issues like sea star wasting disease. While the event tilts the odds toward wetter conditions, it does not guarantee heavy rain, and other impacts, such as damaging waves and rip currents, remain possible.

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